
The Value of Independent Intelligence
Unlike most commodities or biomass analysts and consultancies, Lanworth does not rely on third-party data sources. Lanworth’s supply forecasts are based on real-time imagery, weather data, and field observations integrated within dynamic models of crop management, growth and yield. While many consultants apply economic and market models to anticipate planting and harvest decisions, Lanworth reports only what can be observed as facts or reliably inferred from them.
Our independent estimation methodology removes a large degree of uncertainty from the supply side of the pricing equation. Accurate assessment of supply risk gives our clients a significant advantage in the marketplace, whether they are managing a commodities portfolio or a supply chain.
Lanworth develops empirical baseline measurements of the supply landscape through the application of agro-forestry sciences and spatial analysis to daily satellite feeds, probabilistic field sampling and a deep warehouse of historical production data.
Track Record
Over the last four years, Lanworth has demonstrated the power of its agricultural supply intelligence by forecasting end-of-season production estimates, demand metrics and extreme weather events to capture fluctuation in supply and demand ahead of official government reports.
Our intelligence provides clients with important opportunities to predict and monetize commodity price fluctuations when executing hedging, risk management, procurement and investment strategies
Methodology
Lanworth employs unique, sophisticated methods to generate reliable and relevant forecasts. Lanworth’s system includes the following:
• Remote Sensing. Satellite data is captured daily across North America. Daily satellite data is critical for discerning corn fields from soybean fields early in the growing season and forest growth rates.
• Ground Truthing. Lanworth collects many thousands of ground-based sample data points for statistical modeling. This ground data ensures the highest degree of accuracy at a state and national level.
• Expert Analysis. Lanworth employs agronomists, geographers and statisticians who account for regional farming practices and other factors to generate the most accurate possible production model.
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