To quantify potential impact of August weather on yield potential, Lanworth conducted a sensitivity analysis of its corn and soybean yield models in four major Corn Belt states under different future weather scenarios that combined deviation from normal temperature and precipitation. The scenarios combine three levels of temperature change from August normals (no change, +1°F, and +2°F) and three levels of precipitation change (-1 inch, no change, and +1 inch). Here, Lanworth shows the results of one such scenario.
Despite high rainfall, timely planting followed by warm and wet conditions has driven rapid development of corn and soybean and supported above average crop condition scores during the spring and early summer of 2010 across most of the Midwest.
As crops enter the critical grain fill period in August, what will the implications of excessive precipitation and warm nights be on 2010 yields? Current USDA production estimates reflect surveyed conditions at the end of July, but what is the potential for changes to yield estimates as crops fill their seed? Are current production forecasts achievable as weather conditions vary throughout August?
